16508: Economic Analysis Economic Commentary

Trump administrationWhat the Supreme Court ruling against IEEPA tariffs means in practice23 Feb 2026In a 6–3 decision authored by Chief Justice John Roberts, the Supreme Court ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not grant the president authority to impose tariffs.Read moreTrade Compass – November11 Nov 2025Read moreRecord shutdown leaves mark on the economy07 Nov 2025Read moreUS Immigration compass – October06 Oct 2025Read moreUS government shutdown hits US economy1 Oct 2025Read morePrivate Sector Compass — August13 Aug 2025Read moreTrade compass — August7 Aug 2025Read moreUS fiscal compass — July28 July 2025Read moreImmigration Compass — July9 July 2025Read moreUS fiscal compass — May8 May 2025Read moreUS Private Sector Pulse5 May 2025Read moreTrade Compass — April11 Apr 2025Read moreTariff troubles: Could protectionism revive stagflation?4 Apr 2025Read moreImmigration compass – March25 Mar 2025Read moreTrade compass – March26 Feb 2025Read moreMacro Tariff Playbook: steel and aluminum tariffs12 Feb 2025Read moreTariffs explained: your macro questions answered11 Feb 2025Read moreWhat's newConsumer Price Index April 202612 May 2026Headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose more than expected in April, up 0.6% month after month (m/m), after an outsized 0.9% gain in March.Read moreEmployment report8 May 2026Read moreFOMC Meeting, April 28–2929 April 2026Read moreConsumer Price Index March 202610 Apr 2026Read moreUS GDP (Q4 2025 - final estimate)9 Apr 2026Read moreGeneral economyUS GDP (Q4 2025 – final estimate)Real GDP growth was revised down 0.2 percentage points (ppt) to a lackluster 0.5% (annualized) in Q4, following a robust 4.4% gain in Q3.Read moreUS GDP (Q4 2025 — first estimate)20 Feb 2026Read moreUS GDP (Q3 2025 — second estimate)22 Jan 2026Read moreUS GDP (Q3 2025 — first estimate)23 Dec 2025Read moreUS economic outlook November 202521 Nov 2025Read moreInflationConsumer Price Index April 2026Headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose more than expected in April, up 0.6% month after month (m/m), after an outsized 0.9% gain in March.Read moreConsumer Price Index March 202610 Apr 2026Read moreConsumer Price Index February 202611 Mar 2026Read moreConsumer Price Index January 202613 Feb 2026Read moreConsumer Price Index December 202513 Jan 2026Read moreMonetary policyFOMC Meeting, April 28–2929 April 2026The Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate unchanged at a target range of 3.50%–3.75% at the April Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, but the decision was marked by four dissents – the largest since 1992.Read moreFOMC meeting, January 27-2818 Feb 2026Read moreFOMC meeting, December 9-1010 Dec 2025Read moreFOMC meeting, September 16-178 Oct 2025Read morePowell signals policy shift in NABE speech15 Oct 2025Read moreLaborEmployment report April 20268 May 2026 The April jobs report points to a labor market that has stabilized, with payrolls rising 115,000 following an upwardly revised 185,000 gain and the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3%. Still, despite signs of stabilization, the upside surprise in April’s payrolls was narrowly concentrated and reflects some pockets of resilience rather than a broad based strengthening in hiring.Read moreEmployment report March 20263 April 2026Read moreEmployment report February 2026Read moreEmployment report January 2026Read moreEmployment report December 2025Read moreEmployment report October and November 2025